Progress | Tran to Fire

The latest buy

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Price paid: —
Deployed: —
Shares bought: —
Reserve carried: —

Where things stand

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Portfolio value: —shares plus cash
Total money in: —contributions to date
Profit / loss: —on money in
Drawdown from high: —from the record high
Shares held: —whole shares only
Average cost: —per share
Cash reserve: —waiting to deploy
Allocation: —fund vs cash

The price, the high-water mark, and every buy

The blue step is the record high, which only ever ratchets upward. The dashed lines are the tier boundaries, and they rise with it. Every triangle is a purchase: the deeper the tier, the bigger the marker and the bigger the share of cash going in.

High-water mark Price Baseline · deploy 20% Dip · 33% Deep dip · 67% Crash · 100%

What the fund has done with the money in it

The shares only. The cash reserve is left out of both sides, because it is not the fund and counting it would measure the deployment schedule rather than the fund. Above the line is profit on the money actually invested.

Value of the shares, less what they cost

Drawdown from the high-water mark

Shaded bands mark the tiers. The deeper the line, the harder the rules make me buy.

−20% · deploy 33% −40% · deploy 67% −60% · deploy 100%

The full log

Every month since August 2026.

Each row is the position as it stood on that month's purchase price. The figures at the top of this page are today's live valuation, so the last row and the summary above will differ whenever the market has moved since the buy.

Months at each tier

Tier	Months	Share of cash deployed	Deepest fall while there

Month	Price	From high	Tier	Deploy	Available	Spent	Bought	Shares	Avg cost	Reserve	Portfolio	Money in	Return

Every figure here is derived from the monthly prices in the site's own data file, using the rules published on the Strategy page. Where a month is marked ≠, what I actually bought differed from what the rules called for, and both numbers are shown. Figures in US dollars and they include the $3 brokerage my broking app charges on every buy, which is taken from the cash after the rules have set the share count and is separate from anything the fund charges. They ignore FX conversion costs, tax and dividends, so the real return is still a little worse than what you see here. each fund's management fee is not subtracted here, because a fund charges it inside its own price rather than billing you, so these figures already carry it. Subtracting it again would count it twice. The estimate below shows roughly what it has cost, and there is a fuller explanation on the home page. It cuts the other way too: the cash reserve is credited with interest at 4% a year, accrued monthly, which is roughly what a high-interest saver or offset account pays. That interest counts as return, not as money in, and the figure below shows how much of the gain came from it.

The same money, three funds

What if it had gone into QQQ or QLD instead.

The rules decide how much cash leaves the account each month. This spends that same amount on two other funds tracking the same index, at the price each closed at on the day of the buy, and prices the result at today's market. The money going in is the same in all three columns. Only the leverage changes.

Each card spends the same money as the real schedule, on the same days, and values the result at today's price. Money in is identical across the three, so the only thing being measured is the leverage. All three are priced on the day the order went in rather than at month end. The comparison buys fractional shares, which it has to, because a month's deployment often would not buy one whole share of the unleveraged fund, while the real portfolio buys whole shares and strands the rest as cash, so this flatters the comparison slightly. Closes are corrected for splits but not for distributions, the same as everywhere else on this site, so the unleveraged fund is understated by the most. And the tier ladder runs off the drawdown of the fund I actually hold, so a portfolio built on one of the others would have had its own high-water mark and bought in different months. The schedule is held fixed to isolate the fund choice.

Every month, whatever it says.

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